If you're an Oregonian, what do you think? Hasn't been a terrible summer, right? Fair enough. We use the Winkler Degree Day Index and it's about consistent with 2007, so while this may not be a vintage for the ages, we should know how to get through it. Is that the stuff you're hearing?
Good theory and I was following it - I wrote the above based on my previous comments since I don't consult anyone's opinion on vineyard matters. However, I just looked at our veraison situation in 2008 vs 2007 and it suggests that we're several days behind what I've many times called the most difficult year I've gone through. So if we're accumulating roughly the same number of degree-days as last year, what's causing veraison to be late?
This year's weather exposes the weakness of the model. We expect it to behave in a linear fashion, see x degree days, expect a certain maturity. In years that have fairly low variability from the average temperatures, the accuracy of the model will be very high. In 2008, we had one of the coldest springs on record, then an average+ summer which had some very high peaks (104) and low valleys (66). I realize the story isn't even over yet, but that accounts for July/August. What this has led to is a situation where you actually have fruit in September that hasn't turned color due to veraison, it turned due to sunburned berries. Should I call Al Gore and apologize for my skepticism?
What drives the fact that we are looking at burned unripe fruit? Let me try a horse racing analogy to describe my theory. The cold spring caused bud-break to arrive 3 weeks late, something like letting all the other horses have a 3 second head-start. We've been running at a good pace, better than average, and it's taken taken so much effort that something bad happened, like we were fined for being caught with an Emery board (is this still horse racing?). Despite all the effort, the original handicap was never overcome.
I used to be a fan of a late spring (see earlier posts) just because I would avoid risk of frost. Now I think my original viewpoint was overly obsessed with the raw data of the degree-day index. Since we have roughly the same number of degree days right now as we did on this date in 2007, I would expect to see us completing veraison. Since we're not, I must conclude that the late spring did more harm than I realized.
Having gone through it last year, I'm mentally prepared this year. I don't believe this will result in poor wine, in fact it may be better for the longer hang time, and I'm satisfied with 2007 wines. I know better what to expect, and experience matters when making important decisions (sorry Barack). All we need are dry forecasts and lots of time, easy pickin's here in the North Willamette.
I will of course keep you "posted", -Jon-
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